基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

Mangroves as indicators of coastal change

In view of the unique biological characteristics of mangroves, it is interesting to assess the extent to which these ecosystems can be used as indicators of coastal change or sea-level rise. From recent studies of mangrove mortality at several locations (including Guiana, Gambia, Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, India and Bangladesh), it appears that these coastal ecosystems are so specialized that any minor variation in their hydrological or tidal regimes causes noticeable mortality. Each species of mangrove (but particularly those belonging to the genera Rhizophora, Bruguiera, Sonneratia, Heritiera and Nypa) occurs in ecological conditions that approach its limit of tolerance with regard to salinity of the water and soil, as well as the inundation regime. If the duration of daily immersion were to be modified by tectonic, sedimentological or hydrological events, the species either readjusts to the new conditions or succumbs to unsuitable conditions. Consequently, the use of remote sensing data for mangrove ecosystems offers excellent potential as a tool for monitoring coastal change.     

STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRE IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE

GENERALCoNDlTloNABoUTCLI-MATECHANGEINHElLoNGJIANGPRoVINCEDtlrlngthepasscdll)()}ears(l88l-l`)8(j)ors().tllctcndenc}'ofmcanairtc111pcraturcincrcasct\ithfluctuationcl11ergcdin\ariousrcglonsofHcllonViangproxincc.Airtcmpcra-turcinl98()s-rcachcdtl1emaxil11un1uithinthcpasscdll)()y'cars.Thisphcl1ol11enonaccordcd``iththctcndenc}'ofglobalclil11ate\"ar1ni11g.Thel11eanairtc111peralurcil1tl1creccl1tl()}car(l()8()-l()8`))incrcascdb}l).6"Cascom-pal-cd\`ltl1tl1atll1tl1clbrl11er3())'carsacc…     

WEPP模型中的CLIGEN与BPCDG应用对比研究

通过对遂宁组紫色土产流、产沙侵蚀的观测,运用迄今为止最为复杂的土壤侵蚀预测模型WEPP模型进行单次降雨侵蚀预测,与实测值比较,并对比通过气候生成器CLIGEN和断点生成器BPCDG的产生的气候参数对预测值的影响。通过分析比较结果,认为WEPP模型对遂宁组紫色土侵蚀过程预测合理,而且利用断点生成器BPCDG的预测结果要优于气候生成器CLIGEN的预测结果。     

THE CLIMATE CHANGE AND FORESTRY OF HEILONGJI ANG PROVINCE IN 1990''''S

INTRODUCTIONIntheworldoftoday,theglobalclimatechangeanditsinfluenceonecologyhavebe-comeaveryimportantproblem,towhichmanyscientists,governnentleadersandordinarypcoplepaycloseattentionI1-'].Inl979,theWorldClimateResearchProgram(WCP)waslaiddowninthefirstworldclimatemeeting.lnl99(),thesecondworldclimatemeetingwasconvcl1edinGencva,andalltl1eexpertsagreedthattheglobalwarmlngwillbeextremelyseriousdisasterthananynatUralcalamityever.Attl1eMectingof"WorldEnvironmentandDevelopment,"holdinBrazil…     

Some determinants of the spatio-temporal fire cycle in a mediterranean landscape (Corsica,France)

Based on recent needs to accurately understand fire regimes and post-fire vegetation resilience at a supra-level for carbon cycle studies, this article focusses on the coupled history of fire and vegetation pattern for 40 years on a fire-prone area in central Corsica (France). This area has been submitted since the beginning of the 20^th century to land abandonment and the remaining land management has been largely controlled by frequent fires. Our objectives were to rebuild vegetation and fire maps in order to determine the factors which have driven the spatial and temporal distribution of fires on the area, what were the feed backs on the vegetation dynamics, and the long-term consequences of this inter-relationship. The results show a stable but high frequency of small fires, coupled with forest expansion over the study period. The results particularly illustrate the spatial distribution of fires according to topography and vegetation, leading to a strong contrast between areas never burnt and areas which have been burnt up to 7 times. Fires, when occuring, affect on average 9 to 12% of the S, SE and SW facing slopes (compared to only 2 to 5% for the N facing slopes), spread recurrently over ridge tops, affect all the vegetation types but reburn preferentially shrublands and grasslands. As these fire-proning parameters have also been shown to decrease the regeneration capacity of forests, this study highlights the needs in spatial studies (both in terms of fire spread and vegetation dynamic) to accurately apprehend vegetation dynamic and functionning in fire-prone areas.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

关中西部四灌区旱情规律分析

为给关中西部灌区水资源合理调控提供依据，在简述干旱及其分类的基础上，指出了关中西部各类干旱多源于气象干旱。对该区7个气象站的年降水进行分析表明，各气象站年降水量的变差系数均为0．25，偏态系数均为0．5。以兴平气象站作为代表站对不同历时的旱情进行了分析，结果显示11月到来年2月发生重旱和特旱的概率较大，在30％左右，特别是12月份，概率达54％，且以特旱为主；7、8月份以中旱和重旱为主；夏玉米播前发生特旱的概率较高，达27％，拔节孕穗和抽穗开花期以特旱为主，概率达33％；冬小麦的越冬和麦黄期以特旱为主，发生概率在30％左右。     

黑河流域荒漠地区梭梭人工林地土壤水分动态研究

梭梭林地土壤剖面的含水量与裸沙地含水量显著不同 ,裸沙地土壤含水量随深度增加而增加 ,林地在 30～ 12 0cm范围内有较高的含水量 ;林地 0～ 30cm的上层土壤含水量受降雨及蒸发的剧烈影响 ,30～ 2 0 0cm范围内的林地土壤各测量层平均含水量与其标准差有二次函数的关系 ;降雨对每月的 0～ 2 0 0cm的土壤贮水量没有明显的影响 ,说明降雨多数在当月就被蒸散和深层渗漏所消耗 ;认为梭梭人工林这种脆弱生态系统能够在严酷的环境条件下存在 ,其根系对土壤水和地下水有吸水和释水的再分配功能是重要的因素之一     

北京地区沙尘天气的气候特征分析

本文利用1954-2001年北京地区(20个气象站)逐月沙尘资料,重点对北京地区沙尘天气的空间分布特征、沙尘日数的年代变化规律、沙尘日数的月变化进行分析;分析了近三年北京地区出现沙尘天气特点及成因;同时对近48年的沙尘出现日数变化规律进行了小波分析。     

国内外应对气候变化立法研究进展

为了积极应对气候变化,促进低碳经济发展,分析了当前应对气候变化立法方面的研究进展,认为尽管取得了一定进展,但现有法律既不能满足我国气候外交的需求,也不足以担当气候治理的重任,我国还缺乏系统性专门性的应对气候变化法律.为了应对气候变化的挑战,必须充分整合国内外应对气候变化立法方面的科技资源,以保证我国气候外交和气候治理战略的科学性.